UKCP18 21st century time-mean sea level projections around the UK for 2007-2100

The UKCP18 21st century sea level projections are provided as spatially a continuous dataset around the UK coastline. The projections are rooted in CMIP5 climate model simulations and the process-based methods described in IPCC AR5 (Church et al, 2013). The data consist of annual time series of the projected change in the time-mean coastal water level relative to the average value for the period 1981-2000. Projections are available for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (Meinshausen et al, 2011). Nine percentiles are provided to characterise the projection uncertainty. The 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles are equivalent to the IPCC AR5 lower, central, and upper estimate of projected sea level change, based on underlying modelling uncertainty.

Further information on this dataset and UKCP18 can be found in the documentation section.

This dataset was updated in March 2023 to correct a minor processing error in the earlier version of the UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections relating to the adjustment applied to convert from the IPCC AR5 baseline of 1986-2005 to the baseline period of 1981-2000. The update results in about a 1 cm increase compared to the original data release for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. Further details can be found in the accompanying technical note.

Date (Publication): 2018-11-26T09:00:00

Date (Creation): 2018-11-26T09:00:00

Citation identifier: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0f8d27b1192f41088cd6983e98faa46e

Citation identifier: Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) / 0f8d27b1192f41088cd6983e98faa46e

Point of contact

Organisation name	Electronic mail address	Role
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC)	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	Author
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Custodian
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Distributor
Met Office	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	Principal investigator
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	pointofContact
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC)	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	pointofContact
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Publisher

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

Update scope: Dataset

Keywords

Not defined

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

atmospheric conditions

Access constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for a CEDA account to gain access.

Use constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.

Spatial representation type: Grid

Language: English

Topic category

Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere

Begin date: 2007-01-01T00:00:00

End date: 2100-12-30T23:59:59

Unique resource identifier: WGS 84

Distribution format

Name	Version
Data are NetCDF formatted

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)		support@ceda.ac.uk	Distributor

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0f8d27b1192f41088cd6983e98faa46e	CEDA Data Catalogue Page

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp18/data/marine-sim/msl-proj	DOWNLOAD

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-guidance-data-availability-access-and-formats.pdf	UKCP18 Guidance on data, access and formats

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-guidance---caveats-and-limitations.pdf	UKCP18 Guidance - caveats and limitations

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp_tech_note_sea_level_mar23.pdf	Time-mean Sea-level Projections Update: Technical Note

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/using-ukcp/guidance	Further information on this dataset and UKCP18 can be found here.

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Conformance result

Title: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services

Date (Publication): 2010-12-08

Statement: Data provided by the UK Met Office

Metadata

File identifier: 0f8d27b1192f41088cd6983e98faa46e XML

Metadata language: English

Character set: UTF8

Parent identifier: UKCP18 Time-mean Sea Level Projections
72407f08415c4b868c85b934033691b3

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Date stamp: 2026-02-25T03:15:32

Metadata standard name: UK GEMINI

Metadata standard version: 2.3

Metadata author

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)		support@ceda.ac.uk	Point of contact

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