UKCP18 Probabilistic Projections by UK River Basins for 1961-2100

This data represents the probabilistic climate projections component of the past (observed) and future climate scenario projections data, produced as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. Data has been produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and provides information on changes in 21st century climate for the UK, helping to inform adaptation to a changing climate.

The data represents anomalies with respect to the baseline period 1981-2000, and cover the period 1 Dec 1960 to 30 Nov 2099. Data for 23 river basin regions in the UK is provided.

The Probabilistic Projections were updated on 4th August 2022, to make improvements to the methodology to improve: consistency between maximum, minimum and mean temperature; consistency in the downscaling; statistical treatment of precipitation particularly at the wet and dry extremes; representation of annual and decadal variability; and adjustment of the data in the 1981-2000 baseline period to ensure the anomalies average to zero. The combination of the improvements means that all variables are modified to some degree. For more information, please refer to the UKCP news article and the documents it links to.

On 11th February 2025, the Probabilistic Projections were updated to include information at global warming levels. This information is available for each of the RCP scenarios as cumulative distribution frequency data. Further information about this global warming levels data and approach can be found in the relevant UKCP news article and the guidance document it links to.

Date (Publication): 2018-06-06T11:00:00

Date (Creation): 2018-06-06T11:00:00

Citation identifier: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/10538cf7a8d84e5e872883ea09a674f3

Citation identifier: Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) / 10538cf7a8d84e5e872883ea09a674f3

Point of contact

Organisation name	Electronic mail address	Role
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC)	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	Author
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Custodian
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Distributor
Met Office	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	Principal investigator
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	pointofContact
Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC)	enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk	pointofContact
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)	support@ceda.ac.uk	Publisher

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

Update scope: Dataset

Keywords

UK
Climate
Projections
UKCP18
Probabilistic
Uncertainty

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

atmospheric conditions

Access constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for a CEDA account to gain access.

Use constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.

Spatial representation type: Grid

Language: English

Topic category

Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere

Begin date: 1961-01-01T00:00:00

End date: 2100-12-30T23:59:59

Unique resource identifier: WGS 84

Distribution format

Name	Version
Data are NetCDF formatted

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)		support@ceda.ac.uk	Distributor

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/10538cf7a8d84e5e872883ea09a674f3	CEDA Data Catalogue Page

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp18/data/land-prob/uk/river	DOWNLOAD

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-guidance---caveats-and-limitations.pdf	UKCP18 Guidance - caveats and limitations

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/guidance-science-reports	UKCP18 Science Reports

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/about/project-news	UK Climate Projections News

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Conformance result

Title: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services

Date (Publication): 2010-12-08

Statement: Data provided by the UK Met Office

Metadata

File identifier: 10538cf7a8d84e5e872883ea09a674f3 XML

Metadata language: English

Character set: UTF8

Parent identifier: UKCP18 Probabilistic Climate Projections
9842e395f2d04f48a177c3550756bf98

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Date stamp: 2025-11-12T03:15:45

Metadata standard name: UK GEMINI

Metadata standard version: 2.3

Metadata author

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)		support@ceda.ac.uk	Point of contact

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