18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef English 8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646 dataset NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointOfContact 2026-05-10T02:21:50 UK GEMINI 2.3 WGS 84 Extreme precipitation return level changes at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours for 2050 and 2070, derived from UKCP Local Projections on a 5km grid for the FUTURE-DRAINAGE Project 2021-07-20T09:09:59 publication 2021-07-20T09:09:59 creation https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef 18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis 10.5285/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef doi Extreme short-duration precipitation changes, derived from the UKCP Local projections at 5km resolution (Kendon et al 2021) have been estimated using a spatial statistical model as part of the NERC-funded Future-Drainage project. Future changes (""uplifts"") are estimated for 2050 and 2070 for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1990 for precipitation durations of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hours. 2070 is the central year for 2060-2080 (""UKCP Local TS3"") time-slice, and 2050 value is an interpolation between TS3 and 2020-2040 (""UKCP Local TS2"") time-slice. 2050 is an important date for the UK water industry in its delivery of Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans (DWMPs; Water UK, 2019). Return level changes are provided for 2, 30, and 100-year return periods. The data is on the OSGB 1936/EPSG:27700 projection at 5km resolution. The underlying statistical model is described in Youngman (2018, 2020) and is applied individually to each of the twelve UKCP Local ensemble members. Future changes plus their uncertainties from each ensemble member are then combined following the method described in Fosser et al (2020). Two estimates of future changes are provided from this ""super-ensemble"" by estimating percentiles from the distribution obtained using the Fosser et al (2020) method - a central (50%) and high (95%) estimate. Values are rounded to nearest 5%. The future changes are available for each 5km grid point within the borders of the United Kingdom, provided as ERSI shapefiles and a CSV (comma-separated values) file, with separate files for different durations." Chan, Steven C Unavailable author Unavailable author Dale, Murray Unavailable author Unavailable author Fowler, Hayley J Unavailable author Unavailable author Kendon, Elizabeth J Unavailable author Unavailable author NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis custodian 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk custodian NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis distributor 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor Fowler, Hayley J Unavailable principal_investigator Unavailable principalInvestigator NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis point_of_contact 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointofContact NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis publisher 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk publisher notPlanned dataset Not defined atmospheric conditions theme GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication otherRestrictions Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users. otherRestrictions Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. grid English climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere -10.2262 49.3144 3.4038 60.4165 2040-01-01T00:00:00 2080-12-31T00:00:00 Data are provided as Shapefiles and CSV NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis Data Center Contact 01235446432 RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus Didcot OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef CEDA Data Catalogue Page Detail and access information for the resource information http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp18/data/land-cpm/derived/future-extremes DOWNLOAD Download Data download https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088151 Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophysical Research Letters 47:e2020GL088151. No further details. information https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1529596 Youngman BD (2018) Generalized Additive Models for Exceedances of High Thresholds With an Application to Return Level Estimation for U.S. Wind Gusts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1-19. No further details. information https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.04067 Youngman BD (2020) evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models. Journal of Statistical Software. No further details. information https://artefacts.ceda.ac.uk/badc_datadocs/future-drainage/FUTURE_DRAINAGE_Guidance_for_applying_rainfall_uplifts.pdf Guidance for applying rainfall uplifts No further details. information dataset Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 Data is derived from updated OSGB-grid UKCP Local data (released July 2021; Kendon et al 2021; catalogue url: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/e304987739e04cdc960598fa5e4439d0)