8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 eng utf8 dataset dataset NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre +44 (0)1223 221400 British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road Cambridge Cambridgeshire CB3 0ET United Kingdom polardatacentre@bas.ac.uk https://www.bas.ac.uk/team/business-teams/information-services/uk-polar-data-centre/ information pointOfContact 2025-04-07 ISO 19115 Geographic Information - Metadata ISO 19115:2003(E) European Petroleum Survey Group (EPSG) Geodetic Parameter Registry 2008-11-12 publication European Petroleum Survey Group EPSGadministrator@iogp.org https://www.epsg-registry.org/ EPSG Geodetic Parameter Dataset The EPSG Geodetic Parameter Dataset is a structured dataset of Coordinate Reference Systems and Coordinate Transformations, accessible through this online registry. information publisher urn:ogc:def:crs:EPSG::3031 6.18.3 Pan-Arctic 93-day sea ice concentration forecasts from the IceNet model and mappings between sea ice concentration and Dolphin and Union caribou sea ice crossing-start times 2025-04-07 creation 2025-04-07 revision 2025-04-07 publication 2025-04-07 released 1.0 https://doi.org/10.5285/8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 doi GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/02040 https://data.bas.ac.uk/ EP/Y028880/1 award Please cite this item as: Bowler, E., Byrne, J., Leclerc, L., Roberto-Charron, A., Rogers, M., Cavanagh, R., Harasimo, J., Lancaster, M., Chan, R., Strickson, O., Wilkinson, J., Downie, R., Hosking, J., & Andersson, T. (2025). Pan-Arctic 93-day sea ice concentration forecasts from the IceNet model and mappings between sea ice concentration and Dolphin and Union caribou sea ice crossing-start times (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 This dataset contains four types of data: i) IceNet's 93-day pan-Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts, initialised each day between 26th July - 12th December for the years 2020-2022 inclusive (140 forecasts per year), ii) neural network weights for the IceNet model used to generate the forecasts, iii) a Shapefile for the coastline of Victoria Island (Nunavut, Canada), which was used to estimate caribou sea ice crossing-start times, and iv) CSV files with results linking sea ice concentration values to caribou sea ice crossing-start times. This data was used to explore if and how sea ice forecasts from the IceNet model could give early-warning of Dolphin and Union caribou migration times from Victoria Island to the mainland, by predicting key sea ice concentration thresholds. This work was supported under the WWF-UK Arctic IceNet grant (project number GB085600), the EPSRC Grant EP/Y028880/1 and the Environment and Sustainability Grand Challenge at the Alan Turing Institute. No credit. completed Bowler, Ellen British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Byrne, James British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Leclerc, Lisa-Marie Government of Nunavut Researcher author Roberto-Charron, Amelie Government of Nunavut Researcher author Rogers, Martin British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Cavanagh, Rachel British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Harasimo, Jason WWF-UK Researcher author Lancaster, Melanie WWF-UK Researcher author Chan, Ryan The Alan Turing Institute Researcher author Strickson, Oliver The Alan Turing Institute Researcher author Wilkinson, Jeremy British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Downie, Rod WWF-UK Researcher author Hosking, J Scott British Antarctic Survey Researcher author Andersson, Tom British Antarctic Survey Researcher author NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre +44 (0)1223 221400 British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road Cambridge Cambridgeshire CB3 0ET United Kingdom PDCServiceDesk@bas.ac.uk https://www.bas.ac.uk/team/business-teams/information-services/uk-polar-data-centre/ information pointOfContact asNeeded completed EARTH SCIENCE > Cryosphere > Sea Ice > Ice Extent EARTH SCIENCE > Cryosphere > Sea Ice > Ice Growth/Melt EARTH SCIENCE > Cryosphere > Sea Ice > Sea Ice Concentration EARTH SCIENCE > Oceans > Sea Ice > Ice Extent EARTH SCIENCE > Oceans > Sea Ice > Ice Growth/Melt EARTH SCIENCE > Oceans > Sea Ice > Sea Ice Concentration EARTH SCIENCE > Cryosphere > Sea Ice EARTH SCIENCE > Oceans > Sea Ice theme Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Science Keywords 2026-01-27 publication 23 Global Change Data Center, Science and Exploration Directorate, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Greenbelt MD United States of America https://earthdata.nasa.gov/about/gcmd/global-change-master-directory-gcmd-keywords Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) Keywords The information provided on this page seeks to define how the GCMD Keywords are structured, used and accessed. It also provides information on how users can participate in the further development of the keywords. information publisher Coranation Gulf Northwest Passage caribou forecast migration sea ice theme Victoria Island, Nunavut, Canada Arctic place Oceanographic geographical features theme GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2021-01-06 revision otherRestrictions no limitations to public access otherRestrictions no limitations license Open Government Licence v3.0 otherRestrictions Data supplied under Open Government Licence v3.0 otherRestrictions No restrictions apply. url url crossReference url url largerWorkCitation url url largerWorkCitation url url largerWorkCitation url url dependency url url dependency url url dependency textTable eng utf8 imageryBaseMapsEarthCover inlandWaters oceans -117.0 -103.0 66.5 69.5 2020-07-01 2020-12-12 It is recommended that careful attention be paid to the contents of any data, and that the author be contacted with any questions regarding appropriate use. If you find any errors or omissions, please report them to polardatacentre@bas.ac.uk. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre +44 (0)1223 221400 British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road Cambridge Cambridgeshire CB3 0ET United Kingdom PDCServiceDesk@bas.ac.uk https://www.bas.ac.uk/team/business-teams/information-services/uk-polar-data-centre/ information distributor application/x-hdf application/netcdf application/octet-stream text/plain bytes 59807419597 http://ramadda.data.bas.ac.uk/repository/entry/show?entryid=8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link Get Data Download data download bytes 59807419597 http://ramadda.data.bas.ac.uk/repository/entry/show?entryid=8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link Get Data Download data download bytes 59807419597 http://ramadda.data.bas.ac.uk/repository/entry/show?entryid=8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link Get Data Download data download bytes 59807419597 http://ramadda.data.bas.ac.uk/repository/entry/show?entryid=8738b3cb-52c7-4b36-aa6d-6e15c0b46ba4 WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link Get Data Download data download dataset Methodology: The IceNet model used in this dataset is an ensemble of 10 individual U-Net deep learning models, whose forecasts are averaged to compute the ensemble mean. IceNet's daily inputs comprise sea ice concentration (SIC), 11 climate variables, statistical SIC forecasts, and metadata. IceNet is trained to forecast the next 93 days of daily SIC maps at 25 km resolution. IceNet's training data comprises climate simulations covering 1850-2100 and observational (reanalysis and satellite) data from 1979-2015. Observational data from 2015-2019 was used to validate the model during training, and 2020-2022 was used as the test set. The IceNet forecasts for the 2020-2022 test date ranges are provided in netCDF format. The final model weights used to generate the test forecasts are provided as Tensorflow neural network files (HDF5). We use held-out data from 2015-2022 to compare IceNet's forecasting skill to a dynamical model (ECMWF SEAS5). These results are provided in a summary CSV file. Satellite telemetry records from collared caribou were analysed alongside SIC satellite data products to generate caribou/SIC relationships. Satellite telemetry data is held by the Government of Nunavut and is not openly available. Here we present an overview of the analysis and primary results generated, removing specifics relating to the telemetry dataset where required. Caribou sea ice crossing-start points were defined by creating an outline of Victoria Island and assessing when and where each caribou left the island and began travelling over sea ice. This Victoria Island coastline is given as a Shapefile, and was derived from OpenStreetMap data. SIC values at crossing-start points were extracted from the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) passive microwave satellite records, provided as CSV files. These OSI-SAF and AMSR2 SIC records were used to produce a mapping between a SIC threshold and the percent of collared caribou which had migrated before that SIC threshold. These sic/percent-migrated mappings are provided as CSV files, and can be used to convert IceNet forecasts to expected caribou sea ice crossing-start dates. The full process for generating these sets of results are described in detail in the Methods section and supplementary material of the associated paper. The GitHub repository also contains code associated with the analysis. Data collection: IceNet forecasts were generated using the Python library icenet v0.2.6 and can be recreated with icenet-pipeline and icenet@v0.2.x. Results in the analysis were generated in Python v3.9 using the libraries listed in https://github.com/EllieBowler/icenet-caribou-paper. Data quality: IceNet makes predictions based on ERA5 reanalysis data and OSI-SAF SIC data - for information on their errors see their associated documentation. IceNet's SIC values were set to zero over a land mask. asNeeded completed