UKCP09: Climate change projections of storm surge trend for UK waters

The UKCP09 marine & coastal storm surge data provides projections of surge height for the linear trend, the 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century for 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events (including statistical significance) over a 12km coastal grid. Data are available for a medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B), to reflect some aspects of the uncertainty in modelling global and regional climate change eleven different variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 were used to drive eleven corresponding variants of the HadRM3 regional model, which in turn drove the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3).



Note: The projections do not cover all plausible future outcomes and unlike some other components of UKCP09, the storm surge height projections are not probabilistic, although a range is provided based on the assumption that the 11 simulations are equally likely.



More information about the storm surge methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 4 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report and the technical note on storm projections.

Simple

Date (Publication)
2017-09-05T13:01:51
Date (Creation)
2017-09-05T13:01:51
Citation identifier
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/aa448fd749954539afa60e04379f6e5c
Citation identifier
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) / aa448fd749954539afa60e04379f6e5c
Point of contact
Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (MOHC)

unknown

 		Author

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

Custodian

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (MOHC)

unknown

 		Owner

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

Distributor

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)

unknown

 		Principal investigator

Environment Agency

unknown

 		Principal investigator

Met Office

enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk

Principal investigator

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

pointofContact

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (MOHC)

unknown

 		pointofContact

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

Publisher
Maintenance and update frequency
Not planned
Update scope
Dataset
Keywords

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

  • atmospheric conditions
Access constraints
Other restrictions
Other constraints
Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for a CEDA account to gain access.
Use constraints
Other restrictions
Other constraints
Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Spatial representation type
Grid
Language
English
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
N
S
E
W
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Begin date
1951-01-01T00:00:00
End date
2099-12-31T23:59:59
Unique resource identifier
WGS 84
Distribution format
Name Version

The data are NetCDF formatted and adhere to v1.0 of the CF data conventions.
Distributor contact
Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

Distributor
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/aa448fd749954539afa60e04379f6e5c

CEDA Data Catalogue Page
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp09/data/projections/storm_surge

DOWNLOAD
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp09/metadata/projections/projections_archive_overview.txt

UKCP09 archive overview document
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/

UK climate projections website
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
https://zenodo.org/record/7357025/files/marine_and_costal_projections_full_report.pdf

Marine and coastal projections
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
https://zenodo.org/record/7357036/files/tech_note_on_storm_projections.pdf

Technical note on storm projections
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
https://zenodo.org/record/7357017/files/UKCP09_Review.pdf

UKCP09 climate projections review
OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name
https://zenodo.org/record/7357019/files/Responses-to-UKCP09-science-review.pdf

UKCP09 climate projections response
Hierarchy level
Dataset

Conformance result

Title

Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services

Date (Publication)
2010-12-08
Statement

Original data were produced by the Met Office as part of the UKCP09 service before preparation for archival with the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA).

Metadata

File identifier
aa448fd749954539afa60e04379f6e5c XML
Metadata language
English
Character set
UTF8
Parent identifier
UKCP09: Land and marine past climate and future scenario projections data for the UK

094d9c9b9dda42c0aa1a1848af9fb56b
Hierarchy level
Dataset
Date stamp
2026-03-15T03:15:26
Metadata standard name
UK GEMINI
Metadata standard version

2.3
Metadata author
Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role

Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)

support@ceda.ac.uk

Point of contact
 
 

Overviews

Spatial extent

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Keywords

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

atmospheric conditions


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