f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 English ISO/IEC 8859-1 (also known as Latin 1) dataset dataset NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg Lancaster LA1 4AP UK info@eidc.ac.uk https://eidc.ac.uk/ EIDC website The Environmental Information Data Centre (EIDC) is the UK's national data centre for terrestrial and freshwater sciences. information pointOfContact 2026-02-06T09:50:04 UK GEMINI 2.3 OSGB 1936 / British National Grid Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland 2025-10-17 publication 2025-09-10 creation https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 doi: Barwell, L., Turvey, K., Amankwaa, G., Asaaga, F., Cooke, D.E.L., Mitchell, R., Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre 10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 This dataset maps the risks of Phytophthora ramorum infection for 79062 larch fragments identified in Scotland, of which 79060 were assigned a risk score. Two fragments without climate and/or habitat suitability scores were excluded. Fragment risk scores integrate multiple risk factors. The primary risk factor is climate suitability for P. ramorum using pathogen-specific temperature-dependent growth curves and a relative humidity threshold. Other risk factors integrated are proximity to larch/infected larch within 500m or 5000m and other (non-Larch) wider environment infections within 1500m. Presence of alternative hosts are scored using habitat suitability within the fragment for sporulating hosts (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Acrostaphylos uva-versi) and the reservoir host Rhododendron ponticum. Additionally, proximity to inspected premises with confirmed infections and the presence of water courses are also assessed. The maximum possible risk score for a larch fragment is 12. Fragments were also classified as low, medium or high risk. Full details about this dataset can be found at https://doi.org/10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 Louise Barwell UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk pointOfContact Barwell, L. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1643-1046 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Turvey, K. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2611-3391 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Amankwaa, G. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0334-5867 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Asaaga, F. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-9464 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Cooke, D.E.L. James Hutton Institute david.cooke@hutton.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9154-7954 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Mitchell, R. James Hutton Institute ruth.mitchell@hutton.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8151-2769 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author Purse, B.V. UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-2710 ORCID record ORCID is an open, non-profit, community-driven effort to create and maintain a registry of unique researcher identifiers and a transparent method of linking research activities and outputs to these identifiers. information author UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology enquiries@ceh.ac.uk owner NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre info@eidc.ac.uk custodian NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre info@eidc.ac.uk publisher Habitats and Biotopes theme GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication forestry exotic species habitat pathogenic organism pest phytopathology risk assessment GEMET - Concepts, version 4.1.3 2019-01-28 creation Environmental risk Phytophthora ramorum Larch Scotland otherRestrictions no limitations otherRestrictions This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence otherRestrictions If you reuse this data, you should cite: Barwell, L., Turvey, K., Amankwaa, G., Asaaga, F., Cooke, D.E.L., Mitchell, R., Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre https://doi.org/10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 grid vector 15015 English utf8 environment 2013-01-01 2023-12-31 -8.648 -0.728 54.634 60.861 TIFF geopackage NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre info@eidc.ac.uk distributor https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/data/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 Download the data Download a copy of this data download https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/sd/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97.zip Supporting information Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this dataset information dataset dataset Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 We employed an iterative and collaborative co-production process that brought together stakeholders with diverse expertise from across Scotland’s plant health sector, including forestry, conservation, horticulture, and government agencies to co-design the risk framework. Larch fragments in Scotland were compiled from the National Forest Estate Sub-compartments Scotland 2019, the Native Woodland Survey of Scotland, survey data, Statutory Plant Health Notices and larch layers from Scottish Forestry, and a Phytophthora database. Any areas felled since 2013 were identified and removed using the National Forest Inventory GB from 2013 to 2023 and completed Statutory Plant Health Notices. Key risk factors and their scoring were agreed with 15 cross-sectoral stakeholders through a self-completion survey and two workshops. The risk scoring has been adjusted to reduce the emphasis on proximity to inspected premises as a pathway of spread, reflecting stakeholder perspectives on improved biosecurity practices in trade. The previous risk analysis for P. ramorum infection for Scotland’s larch fragments (https://doi.org/10.5285/29726cda-09f5-4661-8fd4-ddaa5555466a) has been updated to reflect the removal of larch since 2013 through Statutory Plant Health Notices and other clear-felling, to include new P. ramorum detection data in larch woodlands and inspected premises provided by Scottish Forestry and SASA. In addition, new climate suitability models of pathogen growth are used to score risk of establishment and new species distribution models have been used to score risks of transmission from alternative host species of P. ramorum. The scored fragment data were intersected with the boundaries of local authorities, Scottish Forestry Conservancies, and P. ramorum policy zones to summarise the distribution of risks across regions in Scotland. The final report was peer reviewed by the Plant Health Centre. In addition, a knowledge integration and validation workshop (November 13, 2024) examined the adequacy of the outputs for horizon scanning and decision-making across sectors. Validation of the climate suitability models for P. ramorum has been attempted using independent UK and European detections for P. ramorum. This spatial risk framework cannot yet be fully validated until future detection data are available, because previous detections are used within the model and are not independent of the risk scores assigned. However, the previous risk framework for Larch has been cross-validated against subsequent, independent P. ramorum detections, as proof of concept.