BGS Hosted Metadata
Extreme precipitation return level changes at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours for 2050 and 2070, derived from UKCP Local Projections on a 5km grid for the FUTURE-DRAINAGE Project
Extreme short-duration precipitation changes, derived from the UKCP Local projections at 5km resolution (Kendon et al 2021) have been estimated using a spatial statistical model as part of the NERC-funded Future-Drainage project. Future changes (""uplifts"") are estimated for 2050 and 2070 for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1990 for precipitation durations of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hours. 2070 is the central year for 2060-2080 (""UKCP Local TS3"") time-slice, and 2050 value is an interpolation between TS3 and 2020-2040 (""UKCP Local TS2"") time-slice. 2050 is an important date for the UK water industry in its delivery of Drainage and Wastewater Management Plans (DWMPs; Water UK, 2019). Return level changes are provided for 2, 30, and 100-year return periods. The data is on the OSGB 1936/EPSG:27700 projection at 5km resolution. The underlying statistical model is described in Youngman (2018, 2020) and is applied individually to each of the twelve UKCP Local ensemble members. Future changes plus their uncertainties from each ensemble member are then combined following the method described in Fosser et al (2020).
Two estimates of future changes are provided from this ""super-ensemble"" by estimating percentiles from the distribution obtained using the Fosser et al (2020) method - a central (50%) and high (95%) estimate. Values are rounded to nearest 5%. The future changes are available for each 5km grid point within the borders of the United Kingdom, provided as ERSI shapefiles and a CSV (comma-separated values) file, with separate files for different durations."
Simple
- Date (Publication)
- 2021-07-20T09:09:59
- Date (Creation)
- 2021-07-20T09:09:59
- Citation identifier
- https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef
- Citation identifier
- NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis / 18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef
- Citation identifier
- doi / 10.5285/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef
- Point of contact
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Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role Unavailable
Chan, Steven C
Unavailable
Author Unavailable
Dale, Murray
Unavailable
Author Unavailable
Fowler, Hayley J
Unavailable
Author Unavailable
Kendon, Elizabeth J
Unavailable
Author NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
Custodian NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
Distributor Unavailable
Fowler, Hayley J
Unavailable
Principal investigator NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
pointofContact NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
Publisher
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
- Update scope
- Dataset
- Keywords
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Not defined
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GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
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atmospheric conditions
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- Access constraints
- Other restrictions
- Other constraints
- Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
- Use constraints
- Other restrictions
- Spatial representation type
- Grid
- Language
- English
- Topic category
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- Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
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- Begin date
- 2040-01-01T00:00:00
- End date
- 2080-12-31T00:00:00
- Unique resource identifier
- WGS 84
- Distribution format
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Name Version Data are provided as Shapefiles and CSV
- Distributor contact
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Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
Distributor
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef CEDA Data Catalogue Page
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp18/data/land-cpm/derived/future-extremes DOWNLOAD
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088151 Fosser G, Kendon EJ, Stephenson D, Tucker S (2020) Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections. Geophysical Research Letters 47:e2020GL088151.
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2018.1529596 Youngman BD (2018) Generalized Additive Models for Exceedances of High Thresholds With an Application to Return Level Estimation for U.S. Wind Gusts. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1-19.
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.04067 Youngman BD (2020) evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extreme Value Models. Journal of Statistical Software.
- OnLine resource
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Protocol Linkage Name https://artefacts.ceda.ac.uk/badc_datadocs/future-drainage/FUTURE_DRAINAGE_Guidance_for_applying_rainfall_uplifts.pdf Guidance for applying rainfall uplifts
- Hierarchy level
- Dataset
Conformance result
- Title
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Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services
- Date (Publication)
- 2010-12-08
- Statement
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Data is derived from updated OSGB-grid UKCP Local data (released July 2021; Kendon et al 2021; catalogue url: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/e304987739e04cdc960598fa5e4439d0)
Metadata
- File identifier
- 18f83caf9bdf4cb4803484d8dce19eef XML
- Metadata language
- English
- Character set
- UTF8
- Hierarchy level
- Dataset
- Date stamp
- 2026-03-01T03:21:35
- Metadata standard name
- UK GEMINI
- Metadata standard version
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2.3
- Metadata author
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Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
Point of contact
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